Increasing streaming revenue is eating into download sales. So how long before Apple turns off the tap?

Will streaming eventually kill off downloads for good? Will downloading go the way of cassette tapes in the next five years? This is the future music industry blogger Mark Mulligan has predicted in his article After the Download: When Apple Turns off the iTunes Store.

Apple’s music streaming service, Apple Music, which launched in June 2015, reached 13 million paying subscribers just shy of its first birthday. According to Mulligan, 27% of these subscribers have said that they have stopped buying downloads. With download sales declining steadily, Mulligan suggests that Apple will turn off the iTunes store in 2020, when revenue from streaming is predicted to reach the 2012 iTunes download revenue peak.

Since Apple is the dominant player in the music downloads business, Mulligan warns that this will have flow on effects for the rest of the industry. “Smaller labels, publishers, artists and songwriters all better have a Plan B in place before this transpires,” he concludes. “The download was a fantastic transition product to give the music industry its first steps into the digital era. But as we transition...